Oscar Hill v Patrick Fitzpatrick (Sat 02 Nov 2019)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-6.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
6,451, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Patrick Fitzpatrick:
4,590, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.
Oscar Hill won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
56% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
6,806 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of
4,351. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +4.6% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -3.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +2.1% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -2%.
Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 154% has been applied to his level change.
Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 107% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.3% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is -0.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 80%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 76%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 84%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
6,472, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick:
4,572, level confidence: 84%.