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Thomas Knight v Jade Weston (Fri 01 Nov 2019)

Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 15-8,15-12,15-10.

Starting level for Thomas Knight: 2,316, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jade Weston: 1,374, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Jade Weston.

Thomas Knight won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played 52% better than Jade Weston in this match.

In this case, Thomas Knight played at level 2,113 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Thomas Knight would normally have been playing at level 2,144 (based on typical behaviour), Jade Weston played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to 0% and Jade Weston changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes 0% and for Jade Weston becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is 0% and for Jade Weston is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 84%, Jade Weston: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 79%, Jade Weston: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Thomas Knight: 2,322, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Jade Weston: 1,386, level confidence: 83%.