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Mostafa Asal v Alan Clyne (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-9,13-11,8-11,11-5.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 44,798, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 42,399, level confidence: 62%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Alan Clyne.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 23% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 48,368 and Alan Clyne at a level of 39,270. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +6.6% and Alan Clyne changes to -7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +1.8% and for Alan Clyne becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 85%, Alan Clyne: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 79%, Alan Clyne: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 45,548, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 41,710, level confidence: 73%.