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Raphael Kandra v Moustafa Elsirty (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 13-11,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 44,362, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Moustafa Elsirty: 22,243, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Moustafa Elsirty.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 37% better than Moustafa Elsirty in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 34,163 and 44,362 without affecting his level.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 32,299, his level reduction is 5.8% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 38,930 (based on typical behaviour), Moustafa Elsirty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -4.1% and Moustafa Elsirty changes to +8.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.3% and for Moustafa Elsirty becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 84%, Moustafa Elsirty: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 70%, Moustafa Elsirty: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 43,718, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Moustafa Elsirty: 22,862, level confidence: 72%.