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Victor Crouin v Cesar Salazar (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 10-12,11-4,5-11,11-1,11-4.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 37,021, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,395, level confidence: 66%.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Victor Crouin.

Victor Crouin won 60% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 20% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of 42,883 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 35,736. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +12% and Cesar Salazar changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +2.9% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 89%, Cesar Salazar: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 77%, Cesar Salazar: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 38,065, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 40,211, level confidence: 70%.