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Ali Farag v Omar Mosaad (Mon 28 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-2,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 74,888, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 40,736, level confidence: 66%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Omar Mosaad.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 94% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 76,953 and Omar Mosaad at a level of 39,643. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +2% and Omar Mosaad changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +0.7% and for Omar Mosaad becomes -0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 73%, Omar Mosaad: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 71%, Omar Mosaad: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 74,978, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad: 40,785, level confidence: 79%.