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Leo Au v Adrain Waller (Mon 28 Oct 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 12-10,5-11,13-11,15-13.

Starting level for Leo Au: 43,337, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 47,228, level confidence: 69%.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Leo Au.

Leo Au won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 17% better than Adrain Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 48,883 and Adrain Waller at a level of 41,870. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +12% and Adrain Waller changes to -8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +2.8% and for Adrain Waller becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 69%, Adrain Waller: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 61%, Adrain Waller: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 44,513, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 46,393, level confidence: 74%.