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Baptiste Masotti v Miguel Rodriguez (Mon 28 Oct 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 35,133, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,912, level confidence: 67%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Baptiste Masotti won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 56% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 52,375 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 33,481. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +40% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -32%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +7.4% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Baptiste Masotti is limited to +5.5% and Miguel Rodriguez is limited to -4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 76%, Miguel Rodriguez: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 51%, Miguel Rodriguez: 55%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,117, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,660, level confidence: 55%.