Eain Yow Ng v Raphael Kandra (Mon 28 Oct 2019)
Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-8,11-6,6-11,6-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Eain Yow Ng:
38,964, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
43,988, level confidence: 69%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Eain Yow Ng.
Eain Yow Ng won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played
9% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eain Yow Ng actually played at a level of
43,279 and Raphael Kandra at a level of
39,602. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to +10.4% and Raphael Kandra changes to -9.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes +2.5% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 78%, Raphael Kandra: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 71%, Raphael Kandra: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng:
39,965, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
43,127, level confidence: 75%.