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Ali Farag v Mazen Hesham (Tue 29 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 74,978, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 44,373, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Mazen Hesham.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 74% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 76,016 and Mazen Hesham at a level of 43,767. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +1.1% and Mazen Hesham changes to -0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +0.4% and for Mazen Hesham becomes -0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 84%, Mazen Hesham: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 83%, Mazen Hesham: 90%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 75,098, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham: 44,444, level confidence: 90%.