Paul Coll v Gregoire Marche (Tue 29 Oct 2019)
Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 13-11,11-6,9-11,11-2.
Starting level for
Paul Coll:
67,931, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
51,780, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Gregoire Marche.
Paul Coll won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played
32% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of
68,179 and Gregoire Marche at a level of
51,592. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 0.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +0.3% and Gregoire Marche changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +0.1% and for Gregoire Marche becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 77%, Gregoire Marche: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 77%, Gregoire Marche: 89%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Coll:
68,057, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
51,906, level confidence: 89%.