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Fares Dessouky v Saurav Ghosal (Tue 29 Oct 2019)

Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 52,560, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,682, level confidence: 68%.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Fares Dessouky won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played 106% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of 74,123 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 35,938. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +38% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +6.7% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Fares Dessouky is limited to +4.9% and Saurav Ghosal is limited to -4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 84%, Saurav Ghosal: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 60%, Saurav Ghosal: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fares Dessouky: 55,200, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,390, level confidence: 59%.