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Baptiste Masotti v Eain Yow Ng (Tue 29 Oct 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 7-11,12-10,7-11,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,117, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 39,965, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Baptiste Masotti won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 10% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 40,353 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 36,760. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +8.4% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +2.2% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 71%, Eain Yow Ng: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 65%, Eain Yow Ng: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,942, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 39,395, level confidence: 77%.