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Joel Makin v Baptiste Masotti (Wed 30 Oct 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-3,8-11,14-12,11-2.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 57,148, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,989, level confidence: 65%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 36% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 51,609, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 54,357 (based on typical behaviour), Baptiste Masotti played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Baptiste Masotti changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -0% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 86%, Baptiste Masotti: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 81%, Baptiste Masotti: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 56,891, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 38,533, level confidence: 76%.