Torrie Malik v Saran Nghiem (Sun 03 Nov 2019)
Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 12-10,8-11,11-9,12-10.
Starting level for
Torrie Malik:
6,343, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Saran Nghiem:
4,505, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing
41% better than Saran Nghiem.
Torrie Malik won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played
19% better than Saran Nghiem in this match.
As Torrie Malik has played below her allowed range at 5,626, her level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 6,114 (based on typical behaviour), Saran Nghiem played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 5.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to -4% and Saran Nghiem changes to +4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes -1.9% and for Saran Nghiem becomes +2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 81%, Saran Nghiem: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 74%, Saran Nghiem: 80%.
A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Torrie Malik:
6,266, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Saran Nghiem:
4,632, level confidence: 80%.