Barry Irvine v Leslie Callow (Mon 04 Nov 2019)
Match won by Barry Irvine. Result: 15-12,15-12,14-15,9-15,15-6.
Starting level for
Barry Irvine:
753, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Leslie Callow:
882, level confidence: 67%.
Leslie Callow to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Barry Irvine.
Barry Irvine won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barry Irvine played
11% better than Leslie Callow in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barry Irvine actually played at a level of
858 and Leslie Callow at a level of
774. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barry Irvine changes to +13% and Leslie Callow changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barry Irvine becomes +7.8% and for Leslie Callow becomes -7.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Barry Irvine is +5.8% and for Leslie Callow is -5.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barry Irvine: 79%, Leslie Callow: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barry Irvine: 69%, Leslie Callow: 72%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Barry Irvine:
796, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Leslie Callow:
858, level confidence: 72%.