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Lewis Walters v Patrick Rooney (Tue 05 Nov 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 9-11,11-9,2-11,7-11.

Starting level for Lewis Walters: 17,402, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 38,548, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Lewis Walters.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 32% better than Lewis Walters in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,640 and 38,548 without affecting his level.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 24,695, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 32,710 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Walters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -4.9% and Lewis Walters changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.5% and for Lewis Walters becomes +3.4%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Lewis Walters's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.7% and for Lewis Walters is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 85%, Lewis Walters: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 65%, Lewis Walters: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Walters: 17,776, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 38,383, level confidence: 65%.