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Allister Crossley v Jason Crease (Thu 07 Nov 2019)

Match won by Jason Crease. Result: 11-10,6-11,4-11,1-11.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,965, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jason Crease: 3,313, level confidence: 66%.
Jason Crease to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Allister Crossley.

Jason Crease won 75% of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 95% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Crease played 48% better than Allister Crossley in this match.

In this case, Jason Crease played at level 2,989 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jason Crease would normally have been playing at level 3,066 (based on typical behaviour), Allister Crossley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Crease changes to 0% and Allister Crossley changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Crease becomes 0% and for Allister Crossley becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Jason Crease is 0% and for Allister Crossley is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Crease: 81%, Allister Crossley: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Crease: 76%, Allister Crossley: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,983, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Jason Crease: 3,308, level confidence: 76%.