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Torrie Malik v Beth Moglia (Sat 02 Nov 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 11-5,9-11,7-11,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,300, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Beth Moglia: 2,119, level confidence: 66%.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 197% better than Beth Moglia.

Torrie Malik won 60% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 63% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 23% better than Beth Moglia in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Torrie Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 3,628 and 6,300 without affecting her level.

As Torrie Malik has played below her allowed range at 3,079, her level reduction is 18% before damping. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 4,781 (based on typical behaviour), Beth Moglia played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 35%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to -9.9% and Beth Moglia changes to +19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes -3.5% and for Beth Moglia becomes +8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 82%, Beth Moglia: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 53%, Beth Moglia: 52%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,183, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Beth Moglia: 2,282, level confidence: 52%.