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Torrie Malik v Aliza Sheikh (Sat 02 Nov 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,186, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Aliza Sheikh: 2,540, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 144% better than Aliza Sheikh.

Torrie Malik won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 200% better than Aliza Sheikh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Torrie Malik actually played at a level of 6,866 and Aliza Sheikh at a level of 2,289. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 6.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to +6.9% and Aliza Sheikh changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes +2.7% and for Aliza Sheikh becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 72%, Aliza Sheikh: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 65%, Aliza Sheikh: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,345, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Aliza Sheikh: 2,468, level confidence: 78%.