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Juan Camilo Vargas v Miled Zarazua (Thu 07 Nov 2019)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 11-1,11-3,11-9.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,237, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Miled Zarazua: 11,372, level confidence: 64%.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 140% better than Miled Zarazua.

Juan Camilo Vargas won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 154% better than Miled Zarazua in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Juan Camilo Vargas actually played at a level of 28,040 and Miled Zarazua at a level of 11,046. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +1.7% and Miled Zarazua changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes +0.7% and for Miled Zarazua becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kelowna Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 84%, Miled Zarazua: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 81%, Miled Zarazua: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,432, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Miled Zarazua: 11,269, level confidence: 78%.