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Leonel Cardenas v Martin Svec (Fri 08 Nov 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-4,12-10,11-1.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,781, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Martin Svec: 23,131, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Martin Svec.

Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 127% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 127% better than Martin Svec in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of 38,165 and Martin Svec at a level of 16,837. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +34% and Martin Svec changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +6.8% and for Martin Svec becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kelowna Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Leonel Cardenas is limited to +5.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 79%, Martin Svec: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 57%, Martin Svec: 64%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 29,416, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Martin Svec: 22,650, level confidence: 64%.