Leonel Cardenas v Nicholas Sachvie (Sat 09 Nov 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 12-10,6-11,11-6,11-8.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
29,422, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Nicholas Sachvie:
28,697, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Nicholas Sachvie.
Leonel Cardenas won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
21% better than Nicholas Sachvie in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of
32,024 and Nicholas Sachvie at a level of
26,365. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +8.7% and Nicholas Sachvie changes to -6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +2.3% and for Nicholas Sachvie becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kelowna Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 75%, Nicholas Sachvie: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 69%, Nicholas Sachvie: 79%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
30,072, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Nicholas Sachvie:
28,246, level confidence: 79%.