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Piers Chadwick v Richard Stacey (Mon 11 Nov 2019)

Match won by Richard Stacey. Result: 15-8,8-15,7-15,1-15.

Starting level for Piers Chadwick: 854, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richard Stacey: 1,093, level confidence: 66%.
Richard Stacey to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Piers Chadwick.

Richard Stacey won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Stacey played 40% better than Piers Chadwick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Stacey actually played at a level of 1,144 and Piers Chadwick at a level of 816. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Stacey changes to +4.1% and Piers Chadwick changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Stacey becomes +3.4% and for Piers Chadwick becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Richard Stacey is +2.6% and for Piers Chadwick is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Stacey: 81%, Piers Chadwick: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Stacey: 77%, Piers Chadwick: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Piers Chadwick: 836, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Richard Stacey: 1,123, level confidence: 77%.