Thomas Knight v Neil Hunter (Tue 12 Nov 2019)
Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 12-15,15-10,15-7,15-4.
Starting level for
Thomas Knight:
2,324, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Neil Hunter:
1,346, level confidence: 62%.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing
73% better than Neil Hunter.
Thomas Knight won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played
36% better than Neil Hunter in this match.
As Thomas Knight has played below his allowed range at 1,877, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Thomas Knight would normally have been playing at level 2,137 (based on typical behaviour), Neil Hunter played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 6.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to -1.6% and Neil Hunter changes to +6.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes -1.1% and for Neil Hunter becomes +4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is -0.9% and for Neil Hunter is +3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 87%, Neil Hunter: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 77%, Neil Hunter: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Thomas Knight:
2,309, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Neil Hunter:
1,389, level confidence: 70%.