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Richard Stow v Pujan Soni (Fri 15 Nov 2019)

Match won by Pujan Soni. Result: 9-15,6-15,15-17.

Starting level for Richard Stow: 560, level confidence: 24%.
Starting level for Pujan Soni: 691, level confidence: 62%.
Pujan Soni to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Richard Stow.

Pujan Soni won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pujan Soni played 56% better than Richard Stow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pujan Soni actually played at a level of 777 and Richard Stow at a level of 498. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pujan Soni changes to +4.3% and Richard Stow changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pujan Soni becomes +3.7% and for Richard Stow becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Pujan Soni is +2.8% and for Richard Stow is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pujan Soni: 79%, Richard Stow: 49%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pujan Soni: 70%, Richard Stow: 44%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Stow: 533, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Pujan Soni: 710, level confidence: 70%.