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James Willstrop v George Parker (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-4,11-5,12-10.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 43,884, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for George Parker: 37,745, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 16% better than George Parker.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 79% better than George Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 54,443 and George Parker at a level of 30,424. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +22% and George Parker changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +4.4% and for George Parker becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 73%, George Parker: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 59%, George Parker: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 45,532, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for George Parker: 36,993, level confidence: 73%.