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Alan Clyne v Ryosei Kobayashi (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 12-10,11-5,7-11,11-9.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 41,253, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryosei Kobayashi: 23,936, level confidence: 69%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Ryosei Kobayashi.

Alan Clyne won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 22% better than Ryosei Kobayashi in this match.

As Alan Clyne has played below his allowed range at 31,985, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Alan Clyne would normally have been playing at level 37,953 (based on typical behaviour), Ryosei Kobayashi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 10.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to -6.7% and Ryosei Kobayashi changes to +10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes -1.8% and for Ryosei Kobayashi becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 85%, Ryosei Kobayashi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 71%, Ryosei Kobayashi: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 40,437, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ryosei Kobayashi: 24,643, level confidence: 70%.