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Leo Au v Todd Harrity (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 16-14,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Leo Au: 45,165, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 35,740, level confidence: 58%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Todd Harrity.

Leo Au won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 57% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leo Au actually played at a level of 50,379 and Todd Harrity at a level of 32,041. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.2% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to +8.7% and Todd Harrity changes to -10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes +2.2% and for Todd Harrity becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 83%, Todd Harrity: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 74%, Todd Harrity: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 45,912, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 35,015, level confidence: 68%.