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Marwan Elshorbagy v Arturo Salazar (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 50,810, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 34,653, level confidence: 68%.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Arturo Salazar.

Marwan Elshorbagy won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 136% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marwan Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 64,423 and Arturo Salazar at a level of 27,331. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +17% and Arturo Salazar changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +3.5% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 93%, Arturo Salazar: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 74%, Arturo Salazar: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 52,167, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 33,922, level confidence: 65%.