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Saurav Ghosal v Mahesh Mangaonkar (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-7,11-7,18-16.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,091, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,471, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 40% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 48,953 and Mahesh Mangaonkar at a level of 34,846. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +1.5% and Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +0.6% and for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 75%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 73%, Mahesh Mangaonkar: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 48,131, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 35,501, level confidence: 85%.