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Karim Abdel Gawad v Cesar Salazar (Mon 11 Nov 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 10-12,11-6,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 66,724, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 41,661, level confidence: 67%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Cesar Salazar.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 31% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

As Karim Abdel Gawad has played below his allowed range at 56,596, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 62,566 (based on typical behaviour), Cesar Salazar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -2.9% and Cesar Salazar changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -1% and for Cesar Salazar becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 81%, Cesar Salazar: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 73%, Cesar Salazar: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 65,847, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 42,414, level confidence: 74%.