Tarek Momen v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Tue 12 Nov 2019)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-5,10-12,9-11,11-9,11-4.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
61,628, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
36,995, level confidence: 54%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
67% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.
Tarek Momen won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
14% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi in this match.
As Tarek Momen has played below his allowed range at 47,378, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 57,220 (based on typical behaviour), Abdulla Al-Tamimi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.3% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to -5.7% and Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes -1.6% and for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 92%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 76%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
60,565, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
38,074, level confidence: 61%.