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James Willstrop v Karim Abdel Gawad (Tue 12 Nov 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 11-8,4-11,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,115, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 66,271, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 41% better than James Willstrop.

James Willstrop won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 17% better than Karim Abdel Gawad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 60,377 and Karim Abdel Gawad at a level of 51,715. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +23% and Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +4.6% and for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 80%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 62%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 49,140, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 64,882, level confidence: 67%.