Perry Malik v Koogan Naidoo (Wed 13 Nov 2019)
Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-6,11-4,6-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Perry Malik:
15,451, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Koogan Naidoo:
12,330, level confidence: 10%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Koogan Naidoo.
Perry Malik won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played
27% better than Koogan Naidoo in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of
15,533 and Koogan Naidoo at a level of
12,265. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to 0% and Koogan Naidoo changes to -0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +0% and for Koogan Naidoo becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 82%, Koogan Naidoo: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 81%, Koogan Naidoo: 31%.
Final level for Perry Malik:
15,456, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Koogan Naidoo:
12,302, level confidence: 31%.