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Simon Rösner v James Willstrop (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 14-12,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 50,492, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 48,934, level confidence: 62%.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 3% better than James Willstrop.

Simon Rösner won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 71% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of 65,082 and James Willstrop at a level of 37,964. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +25% and James Willstrop changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +4.7% and for James Willstrop becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 85%, James Willstrop: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 66%, James Willstrop: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 52,532, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 47,790, level confidence: 61%.