Shahjahan Khan v Patrick Rooney (Fri 15 Nov 2019)
Match won by Shahjahan Khan. Result: 12-10,4-11,11-7,13-11.
Starting level for
Shahjahan Khan:
27,331, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
38,495, level confidence: 69%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Shahjahan Khan.
Shahjahan Khan won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shahjahan Khan played
18% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shahjahan Khan actually played at a level of
35,174 and Patrick Rooney at a level of
29,911. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan changes to +24% and Patrick Rooney changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan becomes +5.1% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -4.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shahjahan Khan: 83%, Patrick Rooney: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shahjahan Khan: 64%, Patrick Rooney: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan:
28,694, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
36,845, level confidence: 65%.