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Michael Andrews v Patrick Rooney (Tue 19 Nov 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 5-11,3-11,4-11.

Starting level for Michael Andrews: 12,205, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 36,779, level confidence: 64%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 201% better than Michael Andrews.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 175% better than Michael Andrews in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,509 and 36,779 without affecting his level.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 33,564 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Michael Andrews is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 80%, Michael Andrews: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 76%, Michael Andrews: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Andrews: 12,197, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 36,756, level confidence: 76%.