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Leslie Callow v Andy McLarney (Tue 19 Nov 2019)

Match won by Leslie Callow. Result: 15-12,15-9,15-4.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 812, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy McLarney: 279, level confidence: 61%.
Leslie Callow to win as he is currently playing 191% better than Andy McLarney.

Leslie Callow won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leslie Callow played 80% better than Andy McLarney in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leslie Callow was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 446 and 812 without affecting his level.

In this case, Leslie Callow played at level 559 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Leslie Callow would normally have been playing at level 622 (based on typical behaviour), Andy McLarney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leslie Callow changes to 0% and Andy McLarney changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leslie Callow becomes 0% and for Andy McLarney becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Leslie Callow is 0% and for Andy McLarney is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leslie Callow: 86%, Andy McLarney: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leslie Callow: 67%, Andy McLarney: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 811, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Andy McLarney: 288, level confidence: 61%.