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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Thomas Whiteway (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-10,11-10,11-10.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,507, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,667, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won all of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 25% better than Thomas Whiteway in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of 5,125 and Thomas Whiteway at a level of 4,105. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +13% and Thomas Whiteway changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +4.8% and for Thomas Whiteway becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +3.6% and for Thomas Whiteway is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 91%, Thomas Whiteway: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 80%, Thomas Whiteway: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,663, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,503, level confidence: 81%.