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Malcolm Levy v Mark Webster-Smith (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Malcolm Levy. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 4,154, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,200, level confidence: 67%.
Malcolm Levy to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Mark Webster-Smith.

Malcolm Levy won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Levy played 83% better than Mark Webster-Smith in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Malcolm Levy was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,234 and 4,154 without affecting his level.

In this case, Malcolm Levy played at level 4,033 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mark Webster-Smith is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Levy: 80%, Mark Webster-Smith: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Levy: 79%, Mark Webster-Smith: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,148, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,197, level confidence: 81%.