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Nick Matthew v Greg Lobban (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 7-11,5-11,12-10,11-4,9-11.

Starting level for Nick Matthew: 49,052, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 42,960, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Greg Lobban.

Greg Lobban won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 9% better than Nick Matthew in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 47,971 and Nick Matthew at a level of 43,928. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +8.6% and Nick Matthew changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +2.2% and for Nick Matthew becomes -2.5%.

Given Greg Lobban's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 72% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nick Matthew's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 78% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is +0.9% and for Nick Matthew is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 92%, Nick Matthew: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 83%, Nick Matthew: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Matthew: 48,193, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 43,472, level confidence: 83%.