Julian Kean v Thomas Knight (Thu 21 Nov 2019)
Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 8-15,17-15,11-15,15-17.
Starting level for
Julian Kean:
1,815, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for
Thomas Knight:
2,305, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing
27% better than Julian Kean.
Thomas Knight won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played
24% better than Julian Kean in this match.
In this case, Thomas Knight played at level 2,255 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Thomas Knight would normally have been playing at level 2,262 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Kean played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to 0% and Julian Kean changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes 0% and for Julian Kean becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is 0% and for Julian Kean is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 86%, Julian Kean: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 85%, Julian Kean: 68%.
Final level for Julian Kean:
1,818, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Thomas Knight:
2,305, level confidence: 85%.