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Youssef Soliman v Borja Golan (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-6,2-11,7-11,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 36,945, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Borja Golan: 42,342, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Youssef Soliman.

Youssef Soliman won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 8% better than Borja Golan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of 41,124 and Borja Golan at a level of 38,039. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +9.9% and Borja Golan changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.4% and for Borja Golan becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 87%, Borja Golan: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 78%, Borja Golan: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 37,872, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Borja Golan: 41,403, level confidence: 76%.