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Patrick Rooney v Rory Stewart (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-6,11-8,5-11,11-8.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 36,820, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rory Stewart: 26,382, level confidence: 47%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Rory Stewart.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 22% better than Rory Stewart in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 33,205, his level reduction is 3.4% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 35,552 (based on typical behaviour), Rory Stewart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -1.8% and Rory Stewart changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -0.7% and for Rory Stewart becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 87%, Rory Stewart: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 81%, Rory Stewart: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 36,513, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Rory Stewart: 26,868, level confidence: 64%.