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Victor Crouin v Javier Martin (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-3,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 40,643, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Javier Martin: 8,255, level confidence: 68%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 392% better than Javier Martin.

Victor Crouin won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 154% better than Javier Martin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Victor Crouin was taking it easy by anything up to 42%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,798 and 40,643 without affecting his level.

In this case, Victor Crouin played at level 22,277 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Victor Crouin would normally have been playing at level 23,681 (based on typical behaviour), Javier Martin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to 0% and Javier Martin changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes 0% and for Javier Martin becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dominicana Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 89%, Javier Martin: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 64%, Javier Martin: 59%.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 40,643, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Javier Martin: 8,375, level confidence: 59%.