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Patrick Rooney v Muhammad Asim Khan (Fri 22 Nov 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-7,11-7,8-11,11-1.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 36,375, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 22,091, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Muhammad Asim Khan.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 36% better than Muhammad Asim Khan in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 30,762, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 33,875 (based on typical behaviour), Muhammad Asim Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -1.7% and Muhammad Asim Khan changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -0.7% and for Muhammad Asim Khan becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 90%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 82%, Muhammad Asim Khan: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 35,971, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Muhammad Asim Khan: 22,548, level confidence: 76%.