Leonel Cardenas v Martin Svec (Fri 22 Nov 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-3,11-7.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
31,806, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Martin Svec:
23,230, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Martin Svec.
Leonel Cardenas won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
31% better than Martin Svec in this match.
In this case, Leonel Cardenas played at level 30,612 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Leonel Cardenas would normally have been playing at level 30,819 (based on typical behaviour), Martin Svec played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to 0% and Martin Svec changes to +0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes 0% and for Martin Svec becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Saskatoon Boast Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 83%, Martin Svec: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 81%, Martin Svec: 84%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
31,746, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Martin Svec:
23,444, level confidence: 84%.