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Karim Abdel Gawad v Paul Coll (Sat 23 Nov 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 66,119, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 60,722, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Paul Coll.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 120% better than Paul Coll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 93,983 and Paul Coll at a level of 42,719. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +40% and Paul Coll changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +6.7% and for Paul Coll becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karim Abdel Gawad is limited to +4.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 79%, Paul Coll: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 56%, Paul Coll: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 69,136, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 58,170, level confidence: 64%.