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Patrick Rooney v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Sat 23 Nov 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-5,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 35,958, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 33,629, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 46% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 42,027 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of 28,773. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +16% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +3.6% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 90%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 77%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 37,112, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,664, level confidence: 79%.